By Our Reporter
Gov. Samuel Tunai is expected to formerly launch his bid for a second term Monday with sharp criticism to gubernatorial aspirants Joseph Musuni and Patrick Ntutu.
Gov. Tunai, who goes unopposed during the April primaries will be accepting his party’s nomination while at the same time sounding a county triumphant address that cites his successful efforts to regulate the county policies, boost investments and fix economies of the six sub-counties. Narok is the eleventh largest and nineteenth most populous county in Kenya.
According to minute records on the launch,the governor will be banking on a symbolic transformation agenda and committed development records by his government and that of the Jubilee administration both in the ward and sub-county levels.
It is hoped that Tunai will be pledging for a better and stronger county during his second term, his first having witnessed unprecedented opposition from a section of leaders opposed to his development agendas- he had focused to weeding out an inequality tragedy that had taken the county hostage since independence and which previous regimes failed to deal with.
Tunai grown influence
Gov. Tunai political trajectory took off in earnest, rocky and at times soaring as he clinched the gubernatorial seat in 2013 – elbowing mentors out of the way.
Tunai’s influence has grown bigger than anyone could have reasonably expected, perhaps, fitting that of a political kingpin- whom nobody saw coming roiling the county political scenes. During August elections, Tunai faces an unprecedented foe, Patrick Ntutu, who is trying to make inroads into the county electorate.
The incumbent also faces ex-PS Joseph Musuni, who is hoping for a better change after a 2013 bid flopped.
Purko Table Democracy
Amid a presidential pipe dream, Ntutu’s candidature appears more pegged on Musuni’s fate after Ilariak Purko negotiations failed.
Else, Musuni’s campaign trail has attracted less clamor despite riding on waves of surrogates including one-time political liability now turn loyalist, Francis Nkoitoi andNorth MP Hon. Moitalel Kenta.
Arguably, political strategists wonder whether the county 2nd gubernatorial race, despite few entrants, exemplifiers anopportunity to celebrate ora cursory moment to reflect.
The 1st race attracted seven contestants including Ledama Kina and John Konchellah who managed 1.6 % and 3.8 % of the validly casted votes respectively.
In the 2013 race, a hotelier, Daniel Kiptunen and a teacher Francis Nkoitoi manage garnering 8.5% of the votes. Eng. Johnson Nchoe got 16.6 % whereas, Joseph Musuni and Samuel Tunai secured 23.3 % and 36.9 % of the total casted votes respectively.
Questions about Tunai, Musuni or Ntutu winning the gubernatorial election have continued to be posed, more often based on unworkable comparisons, rather than a cursory survey of the election probables and the county electoral patterns.
The Common Salve
The topsy-turvy county electorate presents not a common salve for the trios to soothe their worries, rather an aspect allaying their anxieties. Blue Ocean Strategy expert, Joseph Sarisar concludes that whatever conventional wisdom says right now, it is going to be different as election date draws nearer.
Each aspirant struggles to project confidence in the race against a backdrop of time, acknowledging that maintaining lead is not likely to happen merely as a result of naturally occurring political gravity rather through hard fought campaigns.
Sarisar argues that plausibly, as a voting probables in the county, there is a likelihood for Tunai to get more votes in Transmara West on premise that Uasin Ngishu, the second most populous clan in not filling candidates for the governor nor senate positions unlike in 2013. This, he says is further compounded by the heavy presence of Uasin Ngishu at Melelo and Emarti. The expert projects that ex-PS Dalton Konchellah might end up supporting the incumbent.
Endorsement in Narok North
Gov. Tunai’s support has founded ground in the vote rich northern sub-county with endorsement by several politicians and influential figures. These include Geothermal Development Corporation managing director Eng. Johnson Nchoe, county assembly majority leader and Olpusimoru strongman, Letulal Masikonde amongst others.
Particularly, the endorsement by Nchoe who got 39,000 votes in 2013 election is perceived as being very critical by virtue of the fact that the incumbent managed 9,200 votes in the sub-county during last election. Nchoe support to the incumbent is coupled by the support by Ilaiser sub-clan,…….
The Kalenjin Factor
According to political strategist, Joseph Sarisar, it is thought that, notwithstanding inroads made by the many parties into the county, such as Chama Cha Mashinani and KANU, the Kalenjinstill predominantly favor re-election of the incumbent.
The political strategist asserts that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
Power of Incumbency
Sarisar says that resource and county government infrastructure plays a very critical role in re-election. Unlike in 2013 election, today the incumbent has widespread network across the county.
The divisive Musuni- Ntutufactor amongst the Purko bloc,which has send ripples throughout the county,is expected to further play a crucial role in Tunai’s re-election.
Perceived ODM- Jubilee Battle Grounds
According to political pundits, the Jubilee Party enjoys widespread support in Transmara East sub-county (Emurua Dikirr constituency), Transmara West sub-county(Kilgoris constituency) as well as in Narok South and Narok West notwithstanding inroads by Chama Cha Mashinani.
It is highly thought that political wars fronts between the Orange Democratic Movement and the Jubilee Party will be fought majorly in Narok North sub-county and partly along some clan faults in Narok East.
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